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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the matters that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his government managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.